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four-point margin for obama. >> it is 47-47, president obama well under 50 in a state he should be well over 50, there are a million more democrats in pennsylvania that republicans. energy is very important issue in the state of pennsylvania and in 2008 in the democrat primary, hillary clinton beat president obama by double digits after president obama was the nominee for the party. it is fertile ground. >>chris: what will you look at early on election night? what states in what counties? how will you know if it is going to be an early night or long night? how long do you think it will take for us to figure out who is the next president? >>guest: there will be a lot of key things but what we are seeing is that there is a general underperforming in places where president obama needs to do well and this is overperforming in places where governor romney does well. there is an intensity factor on the side of the republicans that there is a significant gap and we see it on the ground with people knocking on the door and when people are making phone calls and, again, it is back to the simple
four-point margin for obama. >> it is 47-47, president obama well under 50 in a state he should be well over 50, there are a million more democrats in pennsylvania that republicans. energy is very important issue in the state of pennsylvania and in 2008 in the democrat primary, hillary clinton beat president obama by double digits after president obama was the nominee for the party. it is fertile ground. >>chris: what will you look at early on election night? what states in what...
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Nov 4, 2012
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they show a close race, but president obama with a small but durable lead in the states that matter, and predictions show a race leaning towards the president. >> i don't necessarily agree with that. i think what people would argue is that it is very close, and it's tight in a number of states, okay? >> yeah. >> and the undecided are not -- the general view is that if they have held out this long, chances are they won't vote for the president. that's one argument. so a lot of people look at that in a positive sense. but who knows? >> we're going to find out. >> let mort finish. let's see -- what's the unemployment rate by thunemploy, the more relevant one is 6, that's 14.7%. >> you regard this as good news or bad news? the white house says there are 170,000 of new jobs, sectors are up. romney says sad news that unemployment is up, you know, by 1/10th of a point. >> what was it when obama took office? >> it's not saying unemployment has increased. >> it's higher since obama -- >> there are fewer jobs than when obama took office, so it's not been a great improvement in the economy. we'
they show a close race, but president obama with a small but durable lead in the states that matter, and predictions show a race leaning towards the president. >> i don't necessarily agree with that. i think what people would argue is that it is very close, and it's tight in a number of states, okay? >> yeah. >> and the undecided are not -- the general view is that if they have held out this long, chances are they won't vote for the president. that's one argument. so a lot of...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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indiana and remember marginal obama states and usually republican. and that bringings you up to 204 and then you have florida, colorado and virginia. where the poems that i seen all show romney ahead. by reasonable margins 3-6 points and i think we have those three states. and that is 51 votes and that is to 255. and now he needs 270 to win and needs 15 extra votes and that will not be hard to do. there are eightitates with a combination of 98 electoral votes that are in the middle and in all of those they are in one or two points of each other. new hampshire contrary to the real politics average. recent and good polling shows romney two or three ahead . pennsylvania 20 votes where it shows mitt romney three ahead and ohio 18. tied . wisconsin 10, tied and michigan 15. they are tided. and minnesota 16 and obama is ahead by three . nevada 9. obama ahead by two. and iowa 6 they are tied. he's going to win at least 15 votes from the states and probably more like 45 or 50. and i think romney is on track to a significant victory and i think when we look b
indiana and remember marginal obama states and usually republican. and that bringings you up to 204 and then you have florida, colorado and virginia. where the poems that i seen all show romney ahead. by reasonable margins 3-6 points and i think we have those three states. and that is 51 votes and that is to 255. and now he needs 270 to win and needs 15 extra votes and that will not be hard to do. there are eightitates with a combination of 98 electoral votes that are in the middle and in all...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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also to a state where they have been targeting for a year now, and as in 2008 the obama campaign has more people knocking on doors and making money calls, so the voter outreach things is why they may do better than say, ohio than in the state they haven't focused on like missouri. >> rose: we just went through hurricane sandy. >> yes. >> rose: what impact might it have? >> well, see this is where we are going more into major speculation and i want to be more careful. i think the general wisdom gom of the political science literature is that when there is some kind of a disaster, it is usually easier for the incumbent zero to occupy that space, that is a national function of government. >> rose: meaning that the incumbent gains something because he is in a seat of power and, therefore, he is even responding to an emergency. >> that obama can go and staley stay in washington, d.c. and monitor the disaster, right, and the press corps will treat that a as being appropriate and presidential strategy where romney goes and has. >> rose: a fund raiser. >> a fund raise never ohio and say it i
also to a state where they have been targeting for a year now, and as in 2008 the obama campaign has more people knocking on doors and making money calls, so the voter outreach things is why they may do better than say, ohio than in the state they haven't focused on like missouri. >> rose: we just went through hurricane sandy. >> yes. >> rose: what impact might it have? >> well, see this is where we are going more into major speculation and i want to be more careful. i...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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and another fascinating thing obama gets 43% of the wheat vote, higher than in most states. is it all about the auto bailout, smart move politically? >> it is all about the auto bailout. the chevy cruise which is assembled in ohio has ohio parts. down to the seat covers. and everybody knows that the alternative to the auto bailout would have been 13%, 14% unemployment in that state. chris: is there a national positive for him on the auto front or is it just in a couple of states, wisconsin, obviously michigan, those kind of mi western industrial statse? >> coal being part of the state that's doing well. obviously that message will play better to romney there than to obama. but nevertheless, to back out for a second a look at the economy, generally speaking, you have states important swing states where the unemployment rate is lower than the national average. but the recent set of data we see a brightening of consumer attitudes. we see consumer sentiment and surprisingly at a five-year high despite historically high gas prices. despite a lot of the concerns that this is our e
and another fascinating thing obama gets 43% of the wheat vote, higher than in most states. is it all about the auto bailout, smart move politically? >> it is all about the auto bailout. the chevy cruise which is assembled in ohio has ohio parts. down to the seat covers. and everybody knows that the alternative to the auto bailout would have been 13%, 14% unemployment in that state. chris: is there a national positive for him on the auto front or is it just in a couple of states,...
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Nov 3, 2012
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ohio will be the decisive state. if president obama wins florida, it moves the -- >> i could see florida being -- >> what i heard democrats talk about if they can hold ohio, hold wisconsin, paul ryan's home state, hold nevada, they could lose all other swing states, lose the congressional district in maine and come out with exactly 270 electoral votes. gwen: you add it up that way, john? >> that sounds very powerful. what i am struck by is there hasn't been any mystery about this. if you go further than a year ago, president obama's team was very straightforward. they expected it was going to be mitt romney. they were going to make him very unacceptable. the wealthy and out of touch background. they did that. they had a micro targeted micromessage strategy. they said what they were going to do. and stuck to that strategy seems to be with remarkable discipline. if it works, they look really, really smart. the difference between being really smart and really dumb -- [laughter] >> what's remarkable is that they broadcas
ohio will be the decisive state. if president obama wins florida, it moves the -- >> i could see florida being -- >> what i heard democrats talk about if they can hold ohio, hold wisconsin, paul ryan's home state, hold nevada, they could lose all other swing states, lose the congressional district in maine and come out with exactly 270 electoral votes. gwen: you add it up that way, john? >> that sounds very powerful. what i am struck by is there hasn't been any mystery about...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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COM
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the voters in the swing states who could decide this election. >> mitt romney and barack obama yearn for their vote, the elusive mysterious undecided voter. (laughter) >> stephen: yes, they yearn. (cheers and applause) yes. elusive, mysterious undecided voters. i wonder what he's thinking. (laughter) or if. (laughter) folks, folks, here's how it stands. the electoral kitchen is closing in two weeks and they still can't decide if they want the black-and-white cookie or the decaf wheat thin. (laughter) they're elusive! but we know that they're out there! these campaigns have spent billions of dollars trying to capture them with lawn signs, t.v. ads, radio spots, internet banners, robocalls and, for some lucky ohio voters, an amorous david axelrod with a rose in his teeth. (laughter) but a few and the liesing facts about these mysterious creatures have emerged. >> undecided voter they say typically a single white female between 18 and 29 years old, she has a job with a low income, she did not graduate from college. according to this poll she skipped watching the debate. >> stephen: fasc
the voters in the swing states who could decide this election. >> mitt romney and barack obama yearn for their vote, the elusive mysterious undecided voter. (laughter) >> stephen: yes, they yearn. (cheers and applause) yes. elusive, mysterious undecided voters. i wonder what he's thinking. (laughter) or if. (laughter) folks, folks, here's how it stands. the electoral kitchen is closing in two weeks and they still can't decide if they want the black-and-white cookie or the decaf...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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the final push has president obama and governor romney fire storming seven critical states across the country in the hunt for 270 electoral votes. is argument -- >> unemployment is falling. manufacturing is coming back. >> the passion. this is an election about big things. about big choices. >> and the ground game. the critical effort to deliver key voting groups to the polls. this morning, we hear about it all from key figures on the ground. all important ohio. can romney win the white house without it? we'll ask the state republican governor, john casic. wisconsin governor scott walker and colorado's democratic governor, john. analysis on what will tip the scales in this tight presidential race. from the round table, from msnbc, rachel maddow, new york times columnist david brooks, washington post columnist, former ceo of hewlett packard, carly. our chief white house correspondent, chuck todd. >>> announcer: from nbc news in washington, "meet the press" with david gregory. >>> good morning on this sunday. as if it wasn't enough to have this tight race, we have inically mat weather b
the final push has president obama and governor romney fire storming seven critical states across the country in the hunt for 270 electoral votes. is argument -- >> unemployment is falling. manufacturing is coming back. >> the passion. this is an election about big things. about big choices. >> and the ground game. the critical effort to deliver key voting groups to the polls. this morning, we hear about it all from key figures on the ground. all important ohio. can romney win...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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of swing states and the bigger list, really about a dozen states, in 9 of the 12 states, obama le by 1 to 5 points over romney, in the real clear politics average. it seems there are three possibilities, one, the polls are wrong, two, romney's ground game will beat the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that
of swing states and the bigger list, really about a dozen states, in 9 of the 12 states, obama le by 1 to 5 points over romney, in the real clear politics average. it seems there are three possibilities, one, the polls are wrong, two, romney's ground game will beat the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible...
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10/12
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he also needs nevada where president obama right now is up by two and a half points. we are giving that to governor romney. see how this scenario plays out. the president would have to take the state of michigan where he is up by four points. let's give those 15 points to him. wisconsin where he is up by two. this is oe of the most -- obviously one of the most important states. ohio where the president is up by two points in a pivotal, obviously as we have been talking about and will be talking about for 11 days, ohio critical. we will give that to the president. pennsylvania. the president is up five points. adding another 20 points to his electoral count. new hampshire, those four points we are going to give. up by just one point. if that were to happen, as you can see, 269-269, we have a time. so what do we do in the event that this occurs? by the way, this is entirely possible. let's go old school. back to the blackboard. and if no candidate receives a majority it triggers what is called a contingent, and there are, i assure you. it is seldom in the house of repre
he also needs nevada where president obama right now is up by two and a half points. we are giving that to governor romney. see how this scenario plays out. the president would have to take the state of michigan where he is up by four points. let's give those 15 points to him. wisconsin where he is up by two. this is oe of the most -- obviously one of the most important states. ohio where the president is up by two points in a pivotal, obviously as we have been talking about and will be talking...
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the state including cincinnati, 52% for the republican ticket, 47% for president obama. mitt romney -- it's a classic swing state, both campaigns essentially getting what they need where they need it. who can turn out the vote. >> and turn out the vote comes down to the ground game and they are saying we have a better ground game, more people. >> i see the president has a head start in early voting and that's important because his coalition includes college students and african-americans, people less reliable to turn out on election day, so that head start helps the democrats and president there. i was here four years ago. i like to retrace my steps to see how it feels now compared to then. it was clear john mccain was toast and the president was going to carry ohio. it's a lot different this year because the romney campaign have enough to get over the top, that's the question we'll answer in the next hundred hours or so, but the intensity at the romney campaign was off the charts. governor romney's expecting some 30,000 people in ohio tonight not that the ohio people ar
the state including cincinnati, 52% for the republican ticket, 47% for president obama. mitt romney -- it's a classic swing state, both campaigns essentially getting what they need where they need it. who can turn out the vote. >> and turn out the vote comes down to the ground game and they are saying we have a better ground game, more people. >> i see the president has a head start in early voting and that's important because his coalition includes college students and...
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ambassador. >> former obama state spokesman. >> i don't see a political agenda here. i see the fog of war. the fact that we still do not know -- it's not about politics. it's about the difficult task of reconstructing what happened, and having full access to the site and to all the people that played a role in thisment. >> september 18th. >> did the administration have any sort of heads up that violence was increasing specifically in libya before the attacks? >> i'm not aware of any, ed. this is a matter under investigation in terms of what precipitated the eye tack. >> that night, on the late show with david letterman, president obama gives perhaps his most elaborate explanation of what he says happened in benghazi. what it a spontaneous riot or planned attack? a combination of the two, he suggests. >> you had a video that was released by somebody who lives here, sort of a shadowy character. this caused great offense in much of the muslim world. but what also happened was extremists and terrorists used this as an excuse to attack a variety of our embassies, including
ambassador. >> former obama state spokesman. >> i don't see a political agenda here. i see the fog of war. the fact that we still do not know -- it's not about politics. it's about the difficult task of reconstructing what happened, and having full access to the site and to all the people that played a role in thisment. >> september 18th. >> did the administration have any sort of heads up that violence was increasing specifically in libya before the attacks? >>...
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Nov 3, 2012
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and other states where president obama had it locked up. not anymore. >> let ask you about benghazi. do you think that the president owes it to the american people to talk about what he knew about the election . talking about the investigation and obviously not completed until after the election. but he's not answering the questions they are asking . not getting responses. do you think that the american public needs to come clean. >> the cia came out with a time line andment defense department explained their actions in terms of defending what is going on . director of national intelligence initial analysis it was tied to the video and testimony in congress. fox polls this week that indicated that americans have strong concerns about the handling of libya and most don't think that the president is lying. in terms was does the president have to speak out. anything he said would have a strong political. >> vi10 seconds. >> yes, of course the commander-in-chief should be laying out the time line and talking to the american people exactly whame
and other states where president obama had it locked up. not anymore. >> let ask you about benghazi. do you think that the president owes it to the american people to talk about what he knew about the election . talking about the investigation and obviously not completed until after the election. but he's not answering the questions they are asking . not getting responses. do you think that the american public needs to come clean. >> the cia came out with a time line andment defense...
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quote, mitt romney is up or tied with obama in every key battleground state forcing obama on defense in states he won by double digits in 2008 like wisconsin, iowa, michigan, minnesota, and pennsylvania. with the campaigns even on the ground and in early vote, gop enthusiasm is going to carry romney to victory. they're saying energy is on their side and look where obama is campaigning. the reality here is just because the obama campaign is playing defense that still doesn't mean they're going to lose those states. you can play defense and still win. so this is what the romney campaign is talking about today. >> what are both campaigns saying about their chances in ohio during these final few days? >> wolf, you know, our poll showed obama leading romney by three points here, i interviewed govern nor both of them were dismissing public polling saying our models show that the turnout is going to favor republicans. republicans are more enthusiastic. but i went out this morning with some afl-cio organizers. people are talking about turnout. the obama campaign says they've contacted over 1
quote, mitt romney is up or tied with obama in every key battleground state forcing obama on defense in states he won by double digits in 2008 like wisconsin, iowa, michigan, minnesota, and pennsylvania. with the campaigns even on the ground and in early vote, gop enthusiasm is going to carry romney to victory. they're saying energy is on their side and look where obama is campaigning. the reality here is just because the obama campaign is playing defense that still doesn't mean they're going...
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Nov 3, 2012
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barack obama winning the state. so when i spoke with the former head of the republican party of florida, a guy named jim greer who is in his own trouble over charges about some illegal money thing that he was doing, but when he was running the party he told me that republican consultants came to him and said, we want to craft a bill that would get rid of early voting if we could, or severely cut it, because in the words of these consultants, according to jim greer, all it does is bring every african-american out from under a rock, that's a quote, and get them to vote for democrats. they don't vote for us, it doesn't help us. so the republican legislature which in 2010 became more tea party, more conservative, there's no margin in it for them to increase access to in-person early voting. what they did is passed a law that didn't touch absentee voting, which republicans tend to dominate in, but severely limited the early vote. just to give you some numbers, you're talking about there were 96 hours, there are 96 hours
barack obama winning the state. so when i spoke with the former head of the republican party of florida, a guy named jim greer who is in his own trouble over charges about some illegal money thing that he was doing, but when he was running the party he told me that republican consultants came to him and said, we want to craft a bill that would get rid of early voting if we could, or severely cut it, because in the words of these consultants, according to jim greer, all it does is bring every...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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three swing states, obama leads by one. in ohio, he leads by five. in virginia, he leads by two. this momentum by romney is all concocted and the press fell for it. dais i didn't call on you but you -- >> dana: i didn't call on you but you went anyway so i'll take the last word. one poll that came out yesterday that was interest, the national public radio teamed up resurgent republic to talk about the independent voters. if we go back eight months ago on the program to say what will matter in the election, independent voters. democrats vote for democrats. republicans vote for republicans. we have a group. gallop said 40% of the people identify independents now. there is an 8-point swing for independents in favor of romney. it happened right after the first debate if denver. 51-39%. they will have more detail out of the npr public tomorrow. it can tell you this. guess what? tomorrow in his column, karl rove in the "wall street journal" column, he will make prediction on the election turn-out. >> bob: i'll be awake all night waiting for that. >> dana: a lot of peel might be. >> bob
three swing states, obama leads by one. in ohio, he leads by five. in virginia, he leads by two. this momentum by romney is all concocted and the press fell for it. dais i didn't call on you but you -- >> dana: i didn't call on you but you went anyway so i'll take the last word. one poll that came out yesterday that was interest, the national public radio teamed up resurgent republic to talk about the independent voters. if we go back eight months ago on the program to say what will...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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we're in a swing county in what is a swing state. this county voted for obama back in 2008. his margin of victory was over 8 points, a little higher than across the rest of the state of the this was a county that went for bush the previous two elections, so it's a county to watch. we've been speaking to people here about who they support. let's listen to what two of them had to say. >> i'll be supporting president obama. i believe he stands for women's rights, for children's rights, for everyone's rights more than people who represent the top 1%. >> i was -- had high hopes for obama, but he just hasn't fulfilled them. so i think it's time for a change, and romney is the kind of manager/organizer that can do the job. >> reporter: we had a chance to talk to several people here, some of them from loudoun county, some from elsewhere. they both agreed that they've just about had it with all the political ads. back to you. >> oh, we've all had it with the political ads. a athina, i want to see the punkin chunkin. we just saw the aftermath behind her. you guys are going to help us
we're in a swing county in what is a swing state. this county voted for obama back in 2008. his margin of victory was over 8 points, a little higher than across the rest of the state of the this was a county that went for bush the previous two elections, so it's a county to watch. we've been speaking to people here about who they support. let's listen to what two of them had to say. >> i'll be supporting president obama. i believe he stands for women's rights, for children's rights, for...
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Nov 3, 2012
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one state that's not a swing state this year but that president obama made into a swing state in 2008 is the great state of indiana. indiana flipped from red to blue in the presidential contest. president obama is not necessarily expected to pull off the same thing this year in indiana. but this year there's a really hot race in indiana in the senate. after a tea party primary cost senator richard lugar his senate job, the republican candidate in indiana ended up being the guy on the left side of your screen richard mourdock. he's up against joe donnelly. since he made his rape comment at a debate a few weeks ago, in very, very, very, very red state indiana, the republican candidate is now behind in that state senate race. he's losing the race by double digits. here's the interesting thing about that poll to. it's a poll in indiana, which almost never happens. it's really weird, but nobody nationally never knows what's going on in indiana politics because they don't poll in indiana. in indiana, it's illegal to make automated calls for telemarketing purposes and for public opinion surv
one state that's not a swing state this year but that president obama made into a swing state in 2008 is the great state of indiana. indiana flipped from red to blue in the presidential contest. president obama is not necessarily expected to pull off the same thing this year in indiana. but this year there's a really hot race in indiana in the senate. after a tea party primary cost senator richard lugar his senate job, the republican candidate in indiana ended up being the guy on the left side...